The New Orleans Hornets defied the odds last night and came up the big winner in the 2012 NBA draft lottery. With a 13.7 percent chance of gaining the first overall selection, the Hornets leap-frogged over the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, who suffered another loss despite having the best statistical chance (25 percent) of obtaining the No. 1 pick after finishing with the worst winning percentage in league history (.106).
It’s no secret that Kentucky’s precocious freshman big man Anthony Davis was the overwhelming favorite of every lottery team’s general manager. The speculation now is on who will be the No. 2 choice, with a number of contenders considered far less attractive and potentially franchise-changing than Davis.
The draft order was not always so determined. As far back as 1966, the overall No. 1 pick was decided by a coin flip between the two teams with the worst records in each division. Each team thus had a 50 percent chance of gaining the first pick.
That flip was never more important than in 1969, when the ultimate prize was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. So much research and planning go into any successful business venture, yet it was sheer chance that played such a prominent role in ordaining the immediate and long-term fate of two NBA franchises, the Phoenix Suns (who guessed wrong on the coin flip) and the Milwaukee Bucks (who chose first).
Several years ago, I spoke with Jerry Colangelo, the GM of the Suns at the time, about the call he made. “Do you ever think about that,” I asked.
“Oh, yes,” Colangelo said, laughing. “I’ve had plenty of time to think about it.” He then gave me the background on the call.
“Back in 1968 [the Suns’] first season, I wanted people to engage with us regarding the process. So, we had a contest through the local newspapers to let the fans vote, and 51.2 percent said ‘heads.’ We asked the commissioner, Walter Kennedy, if we could make the call. Milwaukee obliged.
“We tell the story that the coin went up in the air and it came up heads. And then the commissioner flipped it over and called tails. Just that little flick of the wrist had some amazing impact on two communities. It was crushing to lose the flip. I remember getting in a car and just driving for about four hours, not headed anywhere, just driving. I came to the conclusion that I better get back to the office; there was a lot of work to do.”
With that work, the Suns chose Neal Walk with the No. 2 pick after Milwaukee predictably took Abdul-Jabbar.
Colangelo, named by the Arizona Republic as the most influential sports figure in Arizona in the 20th century, has had a distinguished business career. With the expansion Suns, he was the youngest GM in pro sports and later was part of an investment group that bought the team. He was inducted into the basketball Hall of Fame in 2004 and was the architect of the the gold-medal-winning USA men’s basketball team at the 2008 Olympics. Colangelo also brought two other major pro sports franchises (the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Phoenix Coyotes) to the state.
The coin flip was out of his hands, so to speak. But did he have any regrets?
“No, not really,” Colangelo said. “Obviously, if one is totally honest with himself, he would say, ‘Gee, if I had to do it over again, I wouldn’t have made this trade or that deal.’ But I remember reading a book where Buzzy Bavasi in baseball was quoted as saying, in the area of player personnel and deals, if you’re right 51 percent of the time, you’re way ahead of the game.
“I think our track record...we’ve been right a heck of a lot more than we been wrong in player transactions. I’m a firm believer that you don’t look back. You learn from those decisions and you look forward.”
Good advice for the executives of the Charlotte Bobcats as they contemplate their next move.
No comments:
Post a Comment